How the Trump-era Bill Could Push Residential Solar Prices Higher
By Kurt Goetzinger
With a second Trump administration eyeing the budget reconciliation — dubbed the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” — for a serious rollback of clean‑energy incentives, homeowners thinking about solar systems may find the picture looking much less sunny.
Loss of the 30 Percent Federal Tax Credit
Under the Inflation Reduction Act, residential solar buyers get a 30 percent tax credit (known as the Residential Clean Energy Credit) on systems installed through 2025. But both the House and Senate versions of Trump’s current budget propose ending that after Dec. 31, 2025—or replacing it with a steep phase‑down through 2027 before full elimination solarinsure.com+4greenlancer.com+4solar.com+4.
Industry group EnergySage estimates that would mean a $9,000 increase in cost for the average installation energycentral.com. Wood Mackenzie forecasts a drop of up to 40 percent in residential solar capacity installations over the next five years if subsidies disappear politico.com+15reuters.com+15solarinsure.com+15.
Higher Up‑Front Prices & Longer Payback
Without the tax credit, homeowners face a 25–30 percent higher out‑of‑pocket cost. That means a typical $30,000 system would cost $21,000 instead of $14,000—a substantial financial shift.
SolarInsure modeling suggests payback cycles could stretch by 3 years without incentives, delaying return on investment from 10 to 13 years for solar‑only systems—and from 13 to 18 years when battery storage is included exactsolar.com+2solar.com+2solarreviews.com+2solarinsure.com.
Dip in Demand—and Project Delays
As upfront costs rise, a natural slowdown in demand is expected. Directors from SEIA, one of the industry’s leading voices, warned that this rollout could “upend an economic boom” driven by clean‑energy deployment greenlancer.com+1seia.org+1.
That downturn may pressure installers to lower margins, and some small firms could face closure if installations decline sharply.
Trade‑Policy Drag and Import Costs
Trump-era tariffs on solar imports could return or intensify. Those steel tariffs from 2018 added upward pressure to panel costs—representing around 41 percent of total installation expenses .
Domestic manufacturing would struggle to fill the gap quickly, leaving homeowners exposed to higher global panel prices or volatile supply chains.
Long‑Term Price Trends vs. Political Risk
Worldwide, solar hardware prices continue to edge downward thanks to mass production in China and tech gains. That means even in the face of policy reversals, raw panel cost may keep dropping en.wikipedia.org.
Still, without U.S. incentives and with tariffs in play, this decline may slow, and the sting of policy‑fuelled price hikes will hit early adopters hardest.
What This Means for Homeowners
Short‑Term: If you install by Dec. 31, 2025, you’ll still qualify for the full 30 percent credit—now could be the last real window to lock in savings .
Afterwards: Even a phased reduction leaves homeowners paying significantly more. Expect higher bills, fewer installers, and lengthened payback periods.
A Cautionary Takeaway
Cutting solar incentives undercuts affordability—and limits the very market that policy champions, analysts and entrepreneurs say is driving clean‑energy growth txses.org+5washingtonpost.com+5greenridgesolar.com+5.
Energy affordability suffers, manufacturers lose confidence, and individual homeowners pay more—financially and environmentally.
Bottom line:
A rollback of IRA solar benefits would hit household budgets hard. Without the 30 percent credit, total installed cost could balloon by up to $9,000, and the market may well slow. Prices may fall over the longer haul, but with trade policy and domestic supply constraints in play, the short‑term outlook is a tougher climb. If you’re considering solar, move now—or prepare for a steeper climb tomorrow.